Graphic from Zillow.com

Since our work with schools began in 2013, we have been watching the rental rates and home prices in the 80214 area to see potential impacts on school enrollment. Student enrollment directly impacts the funding that our local schools receive from the county and state. Specifically, we keep an eye on enrollment at Jefferson Junior/Senior High School and the three elementary schools that feed into Jefferson (Edgewater, Lumberg and Molholm). These three schools are all in the 80214 zip code area and the homes and multifamily complexes where students live are in this zip code. The 80214 zip code includes all of Edgewater and small sections of northeast Lakewood and southeast Wheat Ridge.

Yesterday (1/23/2020), the Colorado Department of Education released the 2019-2020 Pupil Membership data based on the 2019 October count of students. Chalkbeat reported on the five takeaways from this data from a statewide view (read more here). We dove into the data to see what we could find related to the Jefferson Area schools and what might be the takeaways for our area and for Jeffco Public Schools.

Below is a look at the data for this school year along with the historical data. Enrollment numbers for the elementary schools are K-6th grade and Jefferson is 7th-12th grade.

Based on the data from the 2019-2020 school year, along with the historical trends, here are some quick takeaways:

Enrollment Increases for Jefferson Junior/Senior High School

As we look at the school enrollment data for 2019-2020, Jefferson Junior/Senior High School actually increased in enrollment from last school year. It’s too early to say this is a trend, but it is encouraging to see an enrollment increase from last year. We will continue to share stories of what is happening at Jefferson and encourage local families to enroll their children.

Enrollment Continues to Decline at Elementary Schools and Even Faster at Molholm

Enrollment at all three elementary schools continues to decline. Enrollment at Molholm Elementary in Lakewood dropped 86 students from last school year to this school year. Since 2015, the enrollment at Molholm has dropped 39.2%. Enrollment at all of the Jefferson Area schools has dropped since 2015, but enrollment at Molholm has dropped more drastically. What makes Molholm different than the other Jefferson Area schools?

One of our theories is that more new housing developments are being built in the Molholm enrollment area (Two Creeks neighborhood) that is bordered by Colfax, Sheridan, 6th Avenue and Wadsworth. These housing developments are not affordable or attainable for families that historically have sent their children to Molholm Elementary. Many of the multifamily complexes in the Two Creeks neighborhood have sold within the last five years and rents have increased. This has pushed out families that sent their children to Molholm. West Line Flats is a great example of the new type of development coming into the Two Creeks neighborhood near Molholm. With rents for a two bedroom, two bath unit from $1,947 to $2,494, Molholm families cannot afford to live in West Line Flats. It is yet to be seen how the Lakewood Strategic Growth Initiative will impact new developments in the area, but more than likely it will continue to drive up home prices and rental rates. One of the only hopes for affordable and attainable housing in the Two Creeks neighborhood would be incentives that encourage developers to build developments with units reserved for lower and middle income residents. Metro West Housing Solutions has a great track record of success in Lakewood and these type of developments should be encouraged in Two Creeks.

Jefferson Area Elementary Schools Are Still Large Compared to Other Jeffco Elementary Schools

While enrollment has declined over the last five years at Edgewater, Lumberg and Molholm, these three elementary schools are still large compared to other elementary schools in Jeffco. There are over forty neighborhood elementary schools that are smaller than Molholm Elementary. There are nine elementary schools with between 200 and 250 students and six elementary schools with under 200 students in Jeffco Public Schools. With the need for increased school spending as a continued conversation in Colorado, Jeffco Public Schools leadership has some hard conversations coming around possible school closures and mergers. There could be creative opportunities to work with organizations like Metro West Housing Solutions to transition district school properties to affordable and attainable family housing. But with changing housing and demographic patterns in Jefferson County, it doesn’t make sense to keep schools that were built during the Baby Boom of the 1950s and 1960s all open and operating.